There are approx. 58000 people (of all walks of sexuality including straights/heterosexuals) infected with AIDS/HIV currently living in Canada. 27% of people that are infected are unaware that they are infected. 51% of those that test positive for AIDS/HIV are males that have sex with other males. (source for all the above: http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/aids-sida/populations-eng.php#men.) There are approx. between 2300 and 4500 new cases in Canada of HIV/AIDS each year (http://www.avert.org/canada-hiv.htm, please note the reliability and validity of this source was not verified). Population of Canada is 33,873,357 of which 49% are males. 2% of the male population identifies themselves as gay or bi-sexual (this is a conservative estimate often stated): the larger this actual number is the lower the infection rate will be under these following calculations.
Very rough calculations:
33,873,357 x .49 = 16,597,944.93
16,597,944.93 x .02 = 331,958.8986
58,000 x .51 = 29,580
29,580 x .27 = 7,986.6
7986.6/331,958.8986 = 0.024059002
0.024059002 x 100 = 2.4059002%
There are several problems with this figure, a main problem with this figure is that because of the use of drugs many people can live many years while being infected and these figures are overly accumulative and therefore makes it seems statistically that all of the the 29,580 are currently sexual active in the gay and bi populations while in fact they (i.e., some to many) may not have been for years or decades. Another main problem is that it assumes that even if all this 58,000 are still sexually active (and there are no unknown cases) that only those unware that they are infected would continue to have sex (and those who would know either wouldn't have sex or would have sex with those that are also already infected).
Using the figure of 2,300 new cases per year (to attemp to reduce the accumulative affect):
2,300 x .51 = 1173
1173/331,958.8986
0.003533569 x 100 = 0.3533569%
The problem with using the number of new cases is it it presumes that these individuals will still continue to be sexually active (something hopefully doubtful) and it assumes time has remained constant (not going forward and the numbers of infected persons do not accumulated or infected persons do not die: needless to say, both assumptions being wrong). And, in reality if they stop being sexually active there would still be those that are unaware that they are infected and who are sexually active. It also presumes that all past infected people are known and 100% have stopped being sexually active with non-infected people (common sense would say this is, sadly, doubtful). What needs to be asked is 'on any random snapshot day how many infected gay or bi-sexual men are sexually active with non-infected men?' (what is meant by this is who are or will be sexually active for the present and statistically presumably the future).
It would seem that given the two data above would give a range of potentially still sexually active AIDS/HIV gay or bi-sexual males (who will have sex with non-infected males) maybe between 0.3533569% (this would be 1 out of approx. 284 partners) and 2.4059002% (approx. 1 out of 42 partners).
Interesting Reading:
http://www.cbc.ca/health/story/2009/11/24/f-aids-hiv-global-epidemic.html
http://www.hc-sc.gc.ca/hl-vs/iyh-vsv/diseases-maladies/hiv-vih-eng.php#hivc
Yearly increases by cases and rates by Specific Geographical Areas and other demographics:
http://www.bccdc.ca/util/about/annreport/default.htm
*1 in 40 gay men in Vancouver study unaware of HIV status:CBC News
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/1-40-gay-men-vancouver-study-unaware-hiv.html
2 comments:
CBC News
AIDS cure by cancer treatment reported
"...'We can't really apply this particular approach to healthy individuals because the risk is just too high," especially when drugs can keep HIV in check in most cases, Saag said. Unless someone with HIV also had cancer, a transplant would not likely be considered, he said.'..."
Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/health/story/2010/12/15/aids-hiv-transplant-berlin.html#ixzz18XLbgrQ3
On the Health Canada website it states in regards to NEW INFECTIONS (of the combined homosexual and heterosexual populations) “3% were men who have sex with men and use injection drugs” (http://www.hc-sc.gc.ca/hl-vs/iyh-vsv/diseases-maladies/hiv-vih-eng.php#hivc) this should not be taken to mean that just 3% of MSM who are infected have used drugs.
Instead, the number of MSM who are newly infected that have used drugs are approximately 15%. That is, to get the “3% were men who have sex with men and use injection drugs” 6.8% of the “44% were men who have sex with men” must have used drugs or otherwise 15% of the total newly infected MSM population: 0.068*44 = 2.99; 6.8/44 = 15.45%.
In turn, this mean that the chances for a MSM being infected can be reduced up to 15% by avoiding the use of drugs as well potentially even reducing the odds further (more than by the aforementioned 15%) by also avoiding having sex with those that do drugs. Keep in mind, the drug use in question are both drugs done by injections as well as smoking pipes and other equipment that could have others blood/bodily fluids on them.
The Canadian Aids Society says that, “People who use drugs comprise about 20% of the population in Canada infected with HIV and about 30% of new infections“ (http://www.cdnaids.ca/hivandpeoplewhousedrugs) in regard to the general population (homosexual and heterosexual combined). In other words, taking these numbers into account MSM can reduce their odds of becoming new infections by perhaps up to 15-30% by avoiding using drugs or having sex with those that do.
It would also appear that for some reason Health Canada is missing the same numbers for WSW, or has included them in the heterosexual category. Perhaps, it need less to say that women can gain aides from women as well as drug use.
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